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Fan Yang

Gold Likely to Retreat and Test the 1200 Handle

The rally in gold has become very choppy. This is signaling a possible change in trend, or at least a correction against the 2016 bull market so far.

XAU/USD 4H Chart 3/14

(click to enlarge)

Overall Bullish: The 4H chart still looks bullish as price trades above the 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages. The SMAs by the way are in very bullish alignment. 

Signs of Exhaustion: However, we are seeing a bearish divergence with the RSI. If the RSI also pushes below 40, it would reflect loss of the prevailing bullish momentum. Price action retreating from that 1280 resistance is also suggestive of a larger bearish correction ahead. 

Bearish Scenario and the 1200 Level: For the bearish correction scenario, 1200 would be a sensible target. It is a support/resistance pivot area, and a psychological level. The 38.2% fibonacci retracement level is just under 1200 and above 1190. Also note that the choppiness during the 2016 rally really started around 1200 in mid-February. In other words, there is a confluence of factors that seem to reside around 1200, making it a possible place for buyers if XAU/USD does retreat to it. 

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