USD/CAD has been bullish in the second half of August. It was boosted further last week after the market interpreted Janet Yellen's speech to be hawkish - that there will indeed be a rate cut by the end of the year. USD/CAD Daily Chart 8/30(click to enlarge)Middle of consolidation:- When we look at 2016 price action as a whole, it has been bearish for USD/CAD. - Since hitting 1.2460, low on the year, in May, USD/CAD has been consolidating.- Basically, the general mode of USD/CAD is bearish-neutral.Bearish bias:- The fact that the overall 2016 mode is bearish and that price fell below a couple of rising trendlines in August, reveal slight bearish bias. - The current rally form just under 1.28 is the first pullback since that bearish break.- Will the market hold on to the bearish bias?Bearish scenario:- If price can hold below 1.31, USD/CAD would essentially be holding below a falling speedline from July.- This suggests further downside risk, first back towards 1.28, then towards those June lows around 1.2650. Bullish scenario:- If price rallies above 1.31, we should consider the bias neutralized. A break above 1.31 should clear the falling speedline coming down from the high in July. - If the market does indeed push price above 1.31 and shows support at 1.30, we have a bullish outlook for USD/CAD that has the 1.34 resistance area as as viable target.