We have been following the AUD/USD in a rising channel. The latest, choppy upswing began in June but has sputtered since August. Still, as we can see in the daily chart, the bullish development in 2016 is still intact. AUD/USD Daily Chart 10/3(click to enlarge)Bullish Reversal in 2016:- Note that there was a price bottom by the end of 2015.- Price eventually completed the bottom by breaking about 0.74 in May 2016.- Since then, we got a pullback in April, but this dip respected the previous price bottom, adding weight to the bullish reversal outlook. Bullish ahead of the RBA shows market expectations:- The daily chart is still bullish in that price has held above a rising channel support - AUD/USD also has been able to stay mostly above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages. - The RBA decision is looming (at the start of the 10/4 Asian session, or during the evening in New York). The central bank is expected to hold its official cash rate at 1.50%. But it is its tone and guidance on future policy that the market will be most interested in. - The fact that the AUD has been resilient shows that the market expects the RBA to take future rate cuts off the table. - If the RBA indeed turns the corner and ends its dovish campaign, the market might start thinking about a rate cut in 2017. This can help the AUD/USD rally further.- The 0.7833 could be tested and broken this week in the hawkish RBA scenario.- But if price fails to reach 0.78 and falls below 0.76 today, it will likely be due to a dovish RBA, one that leaves a rate cut on the table.\