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Fan Yang

Important Sessions Ahead for the AUD/CAD

I am long AUD/CAD. From a fundamental standpoint, I saw these two com dolls as weaklings, but I feel that the RBA might turn the corner away from its dovish stance sooner than the BoC which only last month surprised us with a rate cut. I think most would agree that there is a slight divergence in policy stance that can give the Aussie and edge against the Loonie. 

From a technical perspective, AUD/CAD has been slightly bearish but mostly choppy and sideways. However, recently, it appears to be making some bullish moves.

AUD/CAD Daily Chart 8/10(click to enlarge)

From the daily chart we can see that price was still slightly bearish since April and the pair did make a new low on the year just under 0.94. However, by August, the bearish bias is gone and the market is more like a sideways range.

The thing is, notice how all the moves from the range resistance to support or support to resistance has been made of multiple swings, whereas the latest drive to resistance was in one fell swoop. This might be a bullish sign. Still, the 0.9750 resistance area has to be broken before we can say that AUD/CAD has turned bullish. 

I believe it can do it, but I am right, the AUD/CAD should find support as we start the week testing a key support/resistance pivot.

AUD/CAD 4H Chart 8/10

(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows that price is now around the 0.9615 support/resistance pivot area. Although price action has stalled, AUD/CAD is still above the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) and the RSI is still above 40. These technical conditions reflect a market that is still bullish, but at the border of crossing over. A break below 0.96 might take away some of this bullish bias. I have my stop below 0.96.

The thing with this play is, there is one scenario that can be frustrating - A clear-out below 0.96 before resuming the uptrend. This has happened before where the market comes back to take out some key support before continuing an uptrend. If that happens, I will take the loss and get ready for more clues, prepared for either bullish or bearish signs.

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