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AUD/USD Remains Bearish after the US NFP

AUD/USD has been consolidating throughout February. After a break above the common resistance at 0.7850, price stalled at 0.79. The fact that it held below the 200-period SMA also shows maintenance of some bearish bias. Then when price retreated, the bullish breakout looked like a false breakout, which can often suggest an outlook in the other direction.

AUD/USD 4H Chart 3/6

(click to enlarge)

We can see that after the retreat from 0.79, price held above 0.7750, a common support throughout the consolidation range. We can say that this is the central pivot of the range. 

Today, after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, AUD/USD found resistance at 0.7850 again, and was able to fall below 0.7750 in one fell swoop. Note that price continued to hold below the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs in the 4H chart. 

This dip broke the central pivot and thus opens up the 0.7626-0.7650 lows on the year, with risk of continuing lower since the prevailing downtrend is intact.