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Fan Yang

Gold Trading in a Narrow Consolidation Awaiting Breakout

Gold price has been rallying in November after making a new low on the year at 1130. Since then, there were 2 stages to the consolidation/bullish correction. First we can see a price bottom, which looks like a skewed inverted head and shoulders pattern. After a break above 1175-1180 neckline, the correction entered a 2nd phase. During this phase, price respected the neckline as support, and continued to rally. 

Gold 4H Chart 11/26


(click to enlarge)

This week, price action is trading in a narrow range between roughly 1190 and 1208. 

Looking a the 1H chart below, we can see that gold is bullish in this time-frame. The 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs area in bullish alignment, and price is above all of them. Furthermore, the 1H RSI has tagged 70 and held above 40, showing maintenance of the bullish momentum. 

If price falls below 1190, gold would break below this week's range, and below all 3 SMAs. If the 1H RSI also falls below 40, gold might be reviving its bearish trend. The first key level will be around 1175-1180. This area is also likely to be reinforced by November's rising speedline. A break below 1175 puts gold in an even stronger case for bearish continuation with a common low around 1146 and the 1130 low on the year in sight.

Gold 1H Chart 11/26


(click to enlarge)

However, if price breaks above 1208, gold would be continuing November's bullish correction. However in the daily chart, we can see that price has been bearish since at least July and this downtrend is intact. 

Gold Daily Chart 11/26

(click to enlarge)

The first key resistance will be around 1220, where price is likely to meet a falling speedline from August. Above 1220, the 1240 level should put gold against a falling trendline from July. We should expect sellers in these levels especially if the RSI stalls around 60. 

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