Oil prices have been falling for the second half of the year so far. Recently, in the second half of October, it has been consolidating in somewhat of a falling triangle, flirting with the 80 handle. It broken below 80 several times, but always bounced back. Today, price finally cleared 80 and some recent lows, and this time, it looks like a strong bearish continuation signal. WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart 11/3(click to enlarge) If price does come back up, we should expect sellers in the 80-81 area. The daily chart has very bearish technical conditions, and even with the RSI in oversold territory, we can expect further decline in oil. But where might it find support? A lot of prop firms have been reporting a target of 75. When we look at the monthly chart, we do see the 2011-low at 74.93. The 2012-low at 77.30 might provide some near-term support as well. However, the bearish momentum can carry oil down to the 70-71 area. This is an even more likely level of support based on the market buying at these levels late 2009, early 2010. If we are going to have any major pullback, we will probably need to observe at least 2 weeks of price action, and more likely a whole month of price action before considering a bullish correction. If price is rising from 70-71 area for example, with the RSI turning back up from oversold levels (below 30), then we might expect a stronger, cyclical bullish swing, but even then, we should limit our bullish outlook to 85, or at most 90. It looks like oil is starting a long-term downtrend, but might be due for a significant correction in 2015. WTI Crude Oil Monthly Chart(click to enlarge)