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Fan Yang

Cisco Systems (CSCO) is Topping This Time

Cisco has been resilient in 2018, remaining bullish for after consolidating in the first half of the year. However, the bull run since August stalled and price was held under $50 as we can see on the daily chart. Furthermore, based on different types of price action this time, I think CSCO is finally topping (unlike the first half of the year). 

CSCO Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Why is This More Likely a Top?
1) Market Risk Stronger: 
- First of all, the general market downturn since October has lasted longer than the one in February, which was brief and followed by bullish continuation. 
- this time however, the market did NOT buy the dip, and instead continues to drift lower. (Look at the s&p 500 chart below)
2) Technicals are More Bearish: 
- In the first half of the year, CSCO held above the 200-day simple moving averages and was still making higher highs and higher lows for the most part.
- This time, price has not been able to climb back to the $49.50 high since October.
- Furthermore, the RSI has tagged below 30 and is holding under 60. In the first half of the year, it remained above 40 for the most part after pushing above 70. The RSI contrast is night and day. 
- I think there is downside towards the $40-$41 area, which provided support early- and mid-year. I would limit the bearish outlook to the 2018 low in the $37.50-$38 area. 
- At this point, resistance at $46 would be a strong confirmation of the downside risk. A break above $46 on the other hand suggests bulls are back in control. 

SP500 Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

The downturn since October is extending. This time, the market did NOT buy the dip like it did in February and March/April.

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