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Fan Yang

USD/JPY Signals Further Bearish Correction

The USD/JPY has been consolidating since December. At the turn of the year, we saw USD/JPY hold below roughly 120.80 three times, then start another leg of bearish correction. Last week, price pulled up from 118.05, but stalled below 120 and retreated. The fact that price held below 120, and also held below the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMA by the end of the week suggests bears are in charge.

USD/JPY 4H Chart 1/12


(click to enlarge)

After the mixed jobs report on Friday, USD fell across the board, and the USD/JPY closed the week just above the 118.05 support pivot. It looks poised to test and break the 118 area. Then, the 119 level will become a potential resistance. To the downside, the current bearish correction scenario has the 115.56 December exposed.

USD/JPY Daily Chart 1/12

(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows the consolidation since December's high around 121.70. Now, since the turn of the year, the candlestick combination in the past couple of weeks reflect a bearish outlook in the short-term. This bearish outlook has the 115.56, then the 113.85-114 area in sight. We should expect buyers around these levels.

We should also monitor the daily RSI as it approaches 40. If it stalls then turns back up, we can anticipate a bullish continuation attempt, or conservative, a push towards the 120 handle.

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