Microsoft $MSFT has been on a strong recovery since late December when it came down to $94 a share and found support. But I doubt it is already heading back towards the 2018-high around $116. I think instead, there will be more bearish or at least sideways consolidation. With this bearish outlook, I am monitoring the $104 area as a key support pivot in the short-term. A break below this could open up the next bearish swing.MSFT Daily Chart(click to enlarge)ABC Correction?- From $116 to $94, MSFT made essentially 2 bearish swings broken up by sideways consolidation in the middle. - Some can say it has completed an ABC correction, which supports the current bullish swing. - BUT, ABC corrections don't predict a bullish continuation, even though it will sometimes be followed by one. - V-Shape reversals like the one we saw since December also is sometimes followed by bullish continuation, but does not predict it. - If price holds above $104 and pushes above $110, THEN I would be more convinced that the bullish continuation is at hand. I would have to resolve this outlook with the rest of the market and looking for general risk appetite to support the optimism. - If price instead falls below $104, preferably while staying under $107.50, I would maintain the current bearish bias. In this scenario, I would look for price to retest the $94-$96 support/resistance pivot area.