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Fan Yang

FOMC Minutes Suggests a June Rate Hike

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes on monetary policy.  On May 3, it voted to hold rates, citing economic shakiness at the end of Q1. So far, the FOMC still believes this weakness is transitory and believes in may be appropriate to raise rates in June. 

Here are the minutes:

It did not mention June per say, but said it would be appropriate to tighten "soon". But it cautioned that it would be "prudent" to wait for evidence that the economic weakness was transitory. 

I think there will be some USD-volatility in the upcoming weeks surrounding key economic releases. 

This Friday will be first of such economic data, though it is not "top tier" in terms of usual impact. 

On 5/26, the key economic releases are:
1) Durable Goods Data - Improvement means people are buying large ticket items such as TVs, Cars etc, a sign of economic and financial confidence. 
2) Preliminary GDP for Q1 - The Advanced version (1st release) is usually the most crucial and it showed a weak 0.7% annual growth rate. It is expected to be revised up to 0.9%. I think a revision to 1.0% or above can give the USD a nice boost.

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