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Fan Yang

United Airlines (UAL) Confirming a Triple Top

Last week, we looked at United Airlines (UAL) as it tested a triple top. The passenger incident certainly did not help, and price was held under 72.00. After a few more days of uncertainty, the week ended closing below the recent range, suggesting a bearish outlook and showing respect to the triple top seen on the daily chart below.

United Airlines (UAL) Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Triple Top Held:
- As we can see on the daily chart, price stalled just above 76.00 three times since December 2016.
-There was a bearish break of the neckline around 69 in March.
- Then, price rebounded from 64.00.
- 72.00 is a critical pivot, and so far is holding as resistance. Therefore, the triple top is still in force.
- With price closing last week on a bearish note, we can anticipate further bearish correction.
- The fact that price broke below a rising trendline and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), and then respected them as resistance also shows that bears are winning the battle.

Next Targets:
- If price can push below 69, we will likely see another test of 64.
- Note that there is a support around 61.50, where the 200-day SMA resides. It is also a previous resistance pivot.
- I think for now, we should limit the bearish outlook to the psychological level of 60. We might see price extend a little lower, or miss it (like hold at 61.50).
- For example, an ABC projection where wave C = wave A in length, would target just slightly under 60, around 59.60. 
- Also, we should anticipate support if the RSI and price shows a bullish divergence, especially if this happens when price is around 60.

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