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Fan Yang

EUR/USD - Messy but Still Bearish

I started the week convinced that the EUR/USD is still bearish based on both technical and fundamental factors. The fundamental factors give us the overall, medium-term bias, and the technical conditions in the 4H chart gave us the short-term bearish bias as bears kept control after price closed this week's opening gap

EUR/USD 4H Chart 7/9
(click to enlarge)

Since falling to 1.0915 however, EUR/USD has rebounded significantly, to a new high on the week. This keeps price action very messy, but does not change the bearish bias in the 4H chart based on the following reasons:
1) Price is still respecting the July-high at 1.1121.
2) Price is still holding under the cluster of 200- 100-, and 50-period simple moving (SMAs) averages in the 4H chart.
3) A falling trendline from June is still intact.
4) There was a strong rejection at that falling trendline which formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 7/9 session. 
5) The RSI is still holding below 60 in the h chart. 

Based on these technical conditions, we can expect he pair to head back towards the 1.0915 low on the week, and perhaps push towards the 1.09 handle to close the week or to start the next week.

A break above 1.1170 however might change the status of the pair from a bearish to a neutral-bearish mode, but not a bullish one yet. Still above 1.1170, we might have to stay out of any trades until the market gives us more clues on its directional intent. 

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