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Fan Yang

Stalking EUR/USD's Bearish Continuation

At the start of the week, we saw EUR/USD price action that signaled bearish continuation. As we get through the 8/5, Wednesday session, the pair has indeed fell further and continues to show a bearish outlook.

EUR/USD 1H Chart 8/5

(click to enlarge)

Today, the key US data was the ADP employment change data, which is seen as a precursor to the much more impactful NFP jobs report on Friday. The ADP report showed that the economy added 185K jobs in July, which was lower than the average forecast around a 216K print. The previous reading was revised down to 229K from 237K. 

We saw some initial USD-negative reactions across the board. The EUR/USD rallied after stalling most of the Asian-European session. However, the pair remained under the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages (SMAs), while the RSI remained under. Technically, the bearish trend is intact, and there is still further downside risk towards the 1.08 handle, and some common support pivots just above it. It will likely take a decent NFP to push EUR/USD below 1.08. IF price does indeed close under 1.08 this week, then the 1.0460-1.0520 lows on the year will be in sight. 

If the NFP flops, expect at least some short-term support around 1.08, with upside risk back to 1.11, which is near the highs from last week.

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