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USD/JPY Holding Well Above Key Support Around 104.50 But Resistance Ahead and Bearish Scenario Still Live

$USDJPY has been bearish since it started retreating from 114 in late 2018. It came all the way down to a key support around 104.50, but could be completing a price bottom.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Price Bottom?
- We can see that price has been consolidating above 104.50. We can see that this is a key support on the weekly chart.
- On the daily chart, we can see that there is a bullish divergence between price and the RSI.
- Furthermore, price action is starting to reflect a price bottom with the latest support pivot established around 105.70.
- Price seems to be pushing up above the recent consolidation range in August. 
- USD/JPY is also pushing against a previous support around 107.10.
- The 107.10 is thus a key resistance.
- Also, if price retreats but bounces up from 106.50, I would be inclined to look for a bullish push.
- I think it is possible price will push to 109, but that is where I would limit the bullish expectation with anticipation of consolidation/correction after a test of 109. 
- Failure to clear 107.10 and then, failure to hold above 106.50 would not be a good sign for the bullish scenario.
- Then, a break below 105.70 would suggest a bearish continuation. After that, if price gets back to the 104.50 support, I would anticipate an eventual bearish breakout.
Bearish Scenario:
- If price falls below 104.50 indeed, we can anticipate further downside towards the 2016 low around 100.00.
- From the weekly chart, we can also see that there could be resistance around 108 instead of pushing to the 109 resistance pivot. 

USD/JPY Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

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