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Twitter (TWTR) Remaining On Course Towards $47, 2018-High

Twitter $TWTR has been rallying after its latest Q2 earnings report. Here's a summary from Yahoo Finance.

Twitter (TWTR) Stock Rises After Q2 Earnings Beat:

Twitter TWTR reported their second quarter earnings before the opening bell today, and the results sent the stock up over 9%. The company was able to follow their first quarter success in the second quarter. Overall, the first half of fiscal 2019 was excellent for the social media giant; shares are currently up 45.4% year-to-date. Can the company sustain the growth it has experienced in the first half of the year into the next two quarters? Let’s take a further look into what’s been working so well for the company and how they might perform in Q3 and beyond.

Q2 Overview

Twitter beat our Consensus Earnings Estimate of $0.18 by $0.04 for an EPS surprise of 22.22%. On the revenue side, the company surpassed our Consensus Revenue Estimate by 1.51% with a reported $841 million in revenue for Q2. The social media giant’s reported revenue and earnings were a year over year increase of 18% and 29.4% respectively. Advertising revenue brought in $727 million for a 21% jump from the year ago quarter, and Data Licensing and other revenue totaled $114 million for a 4% year over year increase. However, Data Licensing and other revenue did fall short of our Key Company Metric Estimates by 8.4%, but the 3.13% positive surprise offset the missed target.

U.S. revenue totaled $455 million, increasing 24% from Q2 2018. International revenue was also able to have a solid second quarter, bringing in $386 million for 12% jump from the year ago quarter. Revenue from the U.S. beat our Key Company Metric Estimates by 2.58% while International revenue surpassed our estimate by 2.1%. Twitter said that Japan remains its second largest market, growing 9% to $133 million in revenue.

The company’s new metric, average monetizable daily active usage, was 139 million in Q2, which was a 14% increase. The company’s security efforts for its platform also proved successful in the quarter, as they reported an 18% drop in reports of spam or suspicious behavior across all tweet detail pages.

Q3 Outlook

Twitter was able to put together two solid quarters to start off the fiscal year on the right note. But the question remains: can they sustain this growth into the rest of the fiscal year?

Our Consensus Estimates are currently calling for revenue to leap 15.07% to $872.4 billion for Q3. Furthermore, Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings to fall 9.52% year over year to $0.19 per share. Key Company Metrics are currently forecasting advertising revenue to increase 14.9% to $746 million, and Data Licensing and other revenue is projected to bring in $124 million, a 15.3% jump from Q3 2018.

U.S. revenue is forecasted to bring in $466 million, which would be a 10.2% jump. International revenue is expected to generate $400 million for a 19.6% spike from the year ago quarter. Looking at the company’s full fiscal year estimates for 2019, Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings to increase 22.09% and revenue to increase 16.18% from fiscal 2018.

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Twitter has been surging after anchoring above $37. It pushed past $40 and is now in new highs on the year above $42. 

TWTR Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Bullish Trend:
- Price action reflects a market that is back in a bullish mode.
- The bullish scenario is a run towards the 2018 high around $47. 
- The relatively strong volume this past couple of weeks is a good reinforcement of the bullish outlook.
- In the short-term, if $40 becomes support, we can have more confidence in this bullish outlook in the medium-term..
- In the medium-term, price still can pullback towards $37. But at this point, a bullish market will likely hold TWTR above $37. 

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