Send me real-time posts from this site at my email
Fan Yang

IBM Breaks Short-term Resistance After Positive Earnings Report; $140 is Next Resistance

International Business Machines Corp. $IBM has been in correction mode, but was recovering along with the rest of the market at the turn of the year. $125 was going to be a key resistance to challenge this recovery, and we saw some initial reaction of selling as price approached this price level earlier in the week. 

Then, IBM released its Q4 earnings report, and the market received it positively. Here's a summary from CNBC:

  • Earnings: $4.87 per share, excluding certain items, vs. $4.82 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
  • Revenue: $21.76 billion, vs. $21.71 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.

Revenue fell 3 percent year over year, according to a statement. The company has now reported revenue declines for two consecutive quarters...

...With respect to guidance, IBM said it's looking to generate at least $13.90 in earnings per share, excluding certain items, in all of 2019. Analysts were expecting IBM to forecast $13.79 in earnings per share, excluding certain items, for 2019, according to Refinitiv. The company's free cash flow estimate of $12 billion for 2019 was under the $12.97 billion FactSet estimate.

From: IBM earnings and 2019 guidance beat estimates — stock jumps (CNBC)

It's always about guidance, and IBM's full-year guidance beat expectations. 

However, it is hard for me to equate this positive earnings report to a bullish reversal in IBM. Sure, it saw a jump of more than 7% from around $122.50 to a high of $135 during the 1/23 session. 

IBM Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Short-term S/R Levels:
- In the short-term the broken resistance around $125 will likely become support, unless the entire market starts tanking again and starts dragging IBM down with it.
- The upside is limited to $140-$143 in the short-term. 
- Note that the 200-day simple moving average is around $138. Then around $140, price would be testing a previous support/resistance pivot area (see more clearly on weekly chart below).
- A break above this area opens up $150, which is still key resistance within the context of a bearish correction.
- Essentially, I would limit the my bullish expectation to $150, with $140 as a key resistance to monitor as well. 
- Support around $125 would encourage this upside scenario in the short to medium-term. (in first half of 2019)
Bearish Scenario:
- However a break below $120 would likely be part of a bearish continuation to retest the $106 low of 2018 with a chance of extending lower towards the $100 handle.
- For now, $100 is the limit to my bearish outlook in the medium-term. (in 2019)

IBM Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

Welcome!!! Is it your First time here?

What are you looking for? Select your points of interest to improve your first-time experience:

Apply & Continue