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Fan Yang

Tracking the Pullback in TAN

The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) has recently been in a sharp decline, from roughly 33 to 22, losing 33% in a month. 

TAN 4H Chart 1/27

(click to enlarge)

By mid-January, price has broken a consolidation range support and tagged a previous resistance pivot around 21.50 (you can see that pivot in the weekly chart below).

Immediate Resistance: Now, as price bounces off the 21.50 pivot, TAN is approaching the previous support area around 25.50, which is also at about the 38.2% fibonacci retracement. This resistance area is reinforced by a falling speedline just above it. 

Critical Resistance:
Then, around 28.60-29, we pretty much have the last line of defense. In the 4H chart, a break above 28.60 pushes price above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs, which shouldn't happen in a downtrend. A break above the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level is also an unlikely event if the market were in a downtrend. 

TAN Weekly Chart 1/27

(click to enlarge)

Note the bullish divergence between price and the weekly RSI. This at least suggests some sideways action, or further consolidation, if not a reversal.

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