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Fan Yang

Target (TGT) is Bearish: The $65-$70 Range Scenario

Target $TGT is in a bearish correction against its prevailing bullish run from July 2017 to September 2018. The daily chart below shows how price rallied from around $50 a share to a high around  $90 a share. Then, in the past couple of months, the market has been paring these gains. 

Target Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

200-day SMA:
- The daily chart shows that price is falling towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). 
- Usually, we say that if price is above the 200-day SMA, the overall price action is still bullish.
- In the current case, I would lean towards being a bit early and say that Target has already turned bearish, evidenced by the recent dip and the fact that the RSI was held under 60. 
- The 200-day SMA is a last line of defense, but I think the market is showing commitment to break lower. 
- If the current price action were not so bearish, and the overall market not contracting, I would anticipate support here around $78. But I think the market risk is too high, and TGT is vulnerable to a deeper retracement.
- I think price will push into the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci Retracement area. 
- This area involves the bottom of the early 2018 range. 

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