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Fan Yang

USD/JPY - Examining the Reaction after the Disappointing Jobs Report

Let's first start with my bias - I m bullish on USD/JPY with actual positions. I have lost some bets recently because of the strengths in the Japanese Yen. But I still believe that the bigger picture rides with the central banks and the Federal Reserve will be more hawkish relative to itself in 2016 than the Bank of Japan will be compared to itself last year. 

With that being said, let's take a look at the 1H chart:


Price Structure:
- First of all, note the prevailing downtrend in this time-frame.
- Then, we have a sideways market with a false breakout to the upside.
- To me, this is usually a bearish price structure. 
- In fact, with price under 111.50-60 area, this structure is still bearish as we begin this week.

NFP reaction:
- The jobs report on Friday disappointed. 98K jobs was added in March instead of the estimated 174K. February's number was revised down too.
- On the 1H chart, we can see that initial bearish reaction that almost reached down to 110.00.
- However, there was traders buying there to support a rebound and USD/JPY eventually climbed back above 111.00.
- Furthermore, price came down to test the 111.00 area and treated it as support. Note price also treated the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA) as support after crossing above it. This is call a bullish slingshot.
- I think the NFP reaction could be strong enough to negate the bearish price structure before the NFP. 

A break above 111.60 would suggest a bullish outlook to at least test the 112.15 high from the end of March.

Tails:
- Another reason I think there is more evidence of a bullish development than a bearish one is in the daily chart.
- Note that there were many attempts at 110.00, all resulting in a tail. This means 110.00 is a strong support. 
- This also means that if price were to break below 110.00, we should anticipate a sharp dip, perhaps towards 108.00.
- Otherwise, the tails suggest bulls are still in control.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

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