Gold is giving us messy price action. In December, price retreated from 1238.25 to about 1170.60. Then, last week, we saw a bullish breakout, as seen in the 4H chart below: (gold 4h chart; click to enlarge)In the 4h chart, we can see that the breakout pushed price above 1200 but it again retreated from 1210 and is now back below 1200 to start this week. The bullish breakout does not seem valid anymore. In fact, the false bullish breakout can be interpreted as a bearish signal. If price can close in the next couple of global sessions below 1180, we are likely to see pressure towards the 1170 area, with risk of breaking lower towards the 2014-lows in the 1130-1140 area. If price can close back above 1200 in the next couple of sessions, then the current bearish bias would no longer be valid.