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AUD/JPY Testing Consolidation Range Resistance

The AUD/JPY has been consolidation a little more than a week in a range between roughly 99.90 and 101.35. Last week ended with a bullish attempt to break the 101.35 resistance, and although price is still within the range, it looks poised to break out. 

(AUD/JPY 1H Chart 12/8, click to enlarge)

Now, there are a couple of signs that the market is getting ready for the breakout.

1) Last week, price crossed over the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs, then treated this cluster as support. This slingshot action suggests the market is becoming bullish.

2) The RSI has also been holding mostly above 40, and has tagged 70 a second time during this consolidation period. This suggests bullish momentum is building despite price action being sideways.

Now, if price can hold above 101.60, the bias remains bullish. If price can clear above 101.50, we probably have a bullish continuation in play. 

(AUD/JPY 4H Chart; click to enlarge)

If price does break above 101.50, AUD/JPY would be continuing a prevailing uptrend seen in the 4H chart. This would open up the 102.84 high with risk of breaking higher to test the 103.00 handle. 

However, if price falls back below 101.60, we are likely still in consolidation. Now, because the prevailing trend is bullish, we should expect support at the range lows around 100, as well as the 99.70 pivot. Even if price stretches lower to say 99.50, we should expect buyers especially if the 4H RSI is at 30, and even more so if there is a bullish divergence.

Then, if price can come back above 100.60, we are likely back in the bullish mode. But if price holds below 100.50 for example, and falls back below 100, we are likely still in bearish correction with downside risk toward the November's lows in the 98-98.50 area.

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