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Fan Yang

USD/CHF in a Classic Bearish Continuation Setup

USD/CHF has been consolidating after a bearish breakout in June. Last week, we noted that there could be upside to 1.00, but that would be a key resistance.

USD/CHF Pulling Back Up to Key Resistance at 1.00; EUR/CHF Has Resistance Around 1.11


(click to enlarge)

Bears in Charge:
- We saw a bearish breakout in June as price fell below a rising wedge support as well as the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA).
- In July, price consolidated, and rallied to 0.9950. Price found resistance there again at the end of July instead of challenging the 1.00 resistance.
- The subsequent dip last week was sharp and showed that bears are still in charge.
- Price remained under the moving averages. The dynamic of price breaking below the moving averages and than treating them as resistance is a class bearish slingshot signal.
- Furthermore, the RSI held under 60, which reflects maintenance of the bearish momentum established in June. 
- Note that USD/JPY was in a similar situation. 

USD/JPY Awaiting Breakout with Bearish Bias

$USDJPY did end up breaking below July's consolidation support. I think USD/CHF will follow suit. 

- I anticipate a challenge of the June and 2019 low at 0.97 with a strong potential of falling lower towards the 0.9530-0.9550 low from September 2018.

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