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Fan Yang

S&P500 to Test the 200-day SMA Again

Last week, we warned of being cautious about the bullish move in the markets. The S&P500 was in a bullish breakout from a small range, but saw resistance around $2745. it actually found resistance around $2720 and started sliding last week. This dip accelerated during the 4/24 session as price dips back towards the 200-day SMA.

SPX500 Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Congestion:
- Since the February dip, we put the prospect of a congestion pattern as the most likely because that dip had extraordinary volatility. It covered 3 months of gains in the matter of 2 weeks. 
- Price action has since shown congestion as highs get lower and lows get higher. 
- If the congestion pattern persists, SPX might see support around/above $2600 as it tests the 200-day simple moving average and a rising trendline support.
- I think we should anticipate support if price gets to $2600 and the RSI gets to around 40.
- Then, a swing will have to break above at least $2720 to hint at a bullish continuation.
- On the other hand, if price breaks below $2600, it would break below the 200-day SMA and the rising support. This could be a major signal that the index will continue to fall towards the $2500 area instead of continuing the higher low pattern. 

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