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Fan Yang

Target (TGT) Rebounds from Anticipate Support; But Upside Limited

A couple of weeks ago, we noticed that TGT was falling sharply and cracking its 200-day simple moving average. We suggested downside risk for Target (TGT) towards the $65-$70 area. 

Target (TGT) is Bearish: The $65-$70 Range Scenario

Target posted Q3 earnings after the stock market closed and the the report disappointed. The next session, price dipped sharply and gapped down to open.

However, as we can see on the chart below, our anticipated support above $65 held, as price action in the following sessions came back above $70. 

Target Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Key Support:
- First of all, note that this $65-$70 area contains several possible support factors.
1) Rising trendline
2) Previous support pivot
3) Fibonacci Retracement of 61.8%
While it is not surprising that support held, the upside might be limited because of overall market risk (overall market sentiment is tentative and risk averse right now).
Limited Upside:
- Looking at the daily chart, we can see some key resistance factors above $77.50 to $81.
- This area includes the 200-day SMA and a bunch of common resistance as well as a few support pivots. In other words, this is a key support/resitsance pivot zone.
- If the market is bullish in the short-term, but is still in a medium-term bearish correction, then this $77.50-$81 area should hold as resistance.
- In this bearish context, the RSI should also hold under 60, forgiving a brief violation that should not last more than a couple of sessions.

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